# AI Has Delivered Zero Financial Payoff Outside Big Tech, Apollo Says

- URL: https://usa-24.com/ai-financial-payoff-apollo-slok-note/
- Publisher: USA 24
- Section: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
- Published: 2026-10-26T22:02:28.608Z
- Updated: 2026-10-26T22:02:28.613Z
- Topics: Artificial Intelligence, Stock Market, Productivity, Big Tech, Investing

> Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has produced little financial return for most of corporate America, a claim that landed as Wall Street rallied on Anthropic's IPO filing.

## Key takeaways

- Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech, in a note published Saturday, Oct. 24.
- Revenue per worker is rising for the Magnificent 7 but flat for the S&P 493, and profit margins sit near 30% versus around 10%.
- Among the top 1% of AI spenders, 80.4% are VC-backed, compared with 13.1% of median AI spenders.
- Goldman Sachs estimates AI-related capital spending could total about $7.6 trillion from 2026 through 2031 across computing, data centers and power.
- Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius says support from AI to U.S. growth is about to crest, according to Fortune.

## Is AI making money for companies outside Big Tech

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok argues that the AI financial payoff for companies outside tech is close to zero. In a note published Saturday, Oct. 24, he put it bluntly: AI has delivered "zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech." The note reached investors just as Monday's session was driven by something else. Stocks rose as semiconductor makers rallied after Anthropic's IPO filing revived enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade, according to [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html), so Slok's view works as a counterweight to the day's main story rather than its cause.

Slok's argument is about returns, not about whether the technology works. He says the market's gains are real for the largest companies but have not reached the broader economy, as [Yahoo Finance reported](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apollo-torsten-slok-warns-ai-125709125.html). That distinction matters for anyone reading the AI boom as a general economic story.

The stakes reach well beyond trading desks. Americans with 401(k)s own shares in the companies at the center of this trade, employers are setting AI tool budgets for next year, and workers whose pay depends on AI-driven growth have a direct interest in whether the spending pays off. If Slok is right, most of the gains so far sit inside a small group of firms.

## What the Apollo note actually measures

Slok's comparison pits two groups against each other. The Magnificent 7 are Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. The S&P 493 is the rest of the S&P 500. In a note that [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/10/62583600/apollos-torsten-slok-warns-ai-gains-are-concentrated-in-mag-7-as-sp-493-sees-no-signs-of-productivity-boost-zero-financial-payoff) reported, Slok framed the debate in one line: "the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7."

The note's two main measures tell the same story. Revenue per worker is rising for the Magnificent 7 but flat for the S&P 493, and profit margins split the same way.

| Measure | Magnificent 7 | S&P 493 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue per worker | Rising | Flat |
| Profit margins | Nearly 30% | Around 10% |

Slok also found no clear acceleration in total factor productivity growth, despite rapid adoption and heavy investment in AI. Benzinga reported that Apollo found no significant economywide productivity increase attributable to AI.

These figures come from a single note built on a specific definition of the S&P 493, so they should be read as Slok's findings rather than settled fact. Coverage also varies in wording. Bloomberg, in a report carried by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apollo-slok-says-ai-delivered-092836159.html), used the phrase "zero payoff," while Benzinga and Fortune wrote "zero financial payoff." The core claim is the same across outlets.

## Why productivity has not caught up yet

Slok has framed the problem as one of concentration rather than failure. In his words, "As long as agentic AI and token spending are confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited." That is a claim about scale. If heavy AI use stays inside a few firms, economy-wide statistics will show little change even as those firms grow quickly.

The open question is whether this lag is temporary or structural. A temporary lag would look like adoption spreading beyond tech into banks, factories, hospitals and retailers, followed by gains in revenue per worker. A structural one would show adoption that never converts into revenue or margins outside the largest companies. The brief does not say which path the data is on, and one note cannot settle it. For workers and managers, the practical meaning is that a productivity boom has to show up in official data before it shows up in paychecks.

## Who is spending the AI money

The spending data points to a narrow base. Among the top 1% of AI spenders, 80.4% are venture capital-backed. Among median AI spenders, the figure is 13.1%. The heaviest buyers of AI are mostly venture-funded companies, not the established businesses that make up most of the S&P 493.

Corporate attitudes may be shifting too. Slok says mainstream corporate America is changing how it views AI costs. "Mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins," Slok said.

For a finance chief, that shift is practical. Token consumption grows with usage, and it lands directly on the margin line the note says is stuck near 10% for most companies. Our explainer on [Anthropic's IPO filing](https://usa-24.com/anthropic-ipo-filing-explained/) walks through the revenue and loss figures behind the valuation case for an AI lab that sells those tokens.

## Goldman Sachs sees the AI boost cresting

The spending wave is large. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related capital spending could total about $7.6 trillion from 2026 through 2031 across computing, data centers and power, as [TheStreet's market report](https://thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-oct-26-2026) noted.

On the same day, [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/10/26/ai-zero-financial-payoff-outside-big-tech-apollo-slok-goldman-peak/) reported that Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius says support from AI to U.S. growth is about to crest. Hatzius is measuring AI's contribution to the whole economy, while Slok is measuring returns to companies outside tech. Those are different questions, and the sources reviewed do not reconcile the two views.

They still point in a similar direction. Both suggest the easy part of the AI boost may be fading, and both weigh against the idea that spending alone will carry growth. A build-out of that size would need broader payoffs than the current data shows.

## What investors and managers can check this week

The note does not call for any action, and nothing here is investment advice. Still, a few checks are concrete enough to do this week.

- Investors: pull the holdings list for each index fund and measure how much sits in the seven largest tech names versus the other 493 companies. Fund providers publish this on each fund's holdings page.
- Investors: scan this week's earnings transcripts for mentions of AI revenue or AI cost cuts. Companies outside tech that report either one give the note its most direct test.
- Business owners and managers: break AI tool and token spending into its own budget line, tie it to a specific workflow, and set a measurable output for each use case before renewing contracts.
- Workers: the productivity data shows no clear gain yet, so treat claims that AI will lift pay or output in the near term with caution.

Market context matters too. Meta's planned $95 billion raise, the company's first share issuance since 2013, was already in Monday's market tape, as our [Meta stock sale story](https://usa-24.com/meta-95-billion-stock-offering/) explains.

## What to watch after this week's earnings

Big Tech earnings and a Federal Reserve decision both land this week, according to [Bloomberg's market coverage](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/us-equity-futures-climb-as-crude-oil-price-dips-markets-wrap). The sources reviewed do not show whether those results will confirm or undercut Slok's thesis, and that is the main unknown. Investors will read the Mag 7 numbers for strength, but the more useful signal may come from the other 493 companies.

Watch for three things. First, whether S&P 493 companies begin reporting AI revenue or AI-driven savings with real figures. Second, whether revenue per worker moves in that group during the next reporting cycle. Third, whether the AI industry or the affected companies respond publicly, since no rebuttal turned up in the sources reviewed.

If broad margin gains appear outside the Magnificent 7, Slok's note will look early. If revenue per worker stays flat and token budgets keep tightening, the concentration argument will be harder to dismiss, and the AI trade will depend more heavily on a handful of names than many investors expect.

## Frequently asked questions

### What did Torsten Slok say about AI and corporate profits?

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in a note published Saturday, Oct. 24, that AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech. His note found revenue per worker is rising for the Magnificent 7 but flat for the S&P 493. Profit margins are near 30% for the Mag 7 and around 10% for the rest of the index.

### What is the S&P 493?

The S&P 493 is the S&P 500 without seven companies: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Slok uses it to separate the largest tech firms from the rest of the index. His argument is that the AI story will be decided in that group.

### Is AI making money for companies outside Big Tech?

Slok's note says not yet, at least in measurable form. Revenue per worker and margins for the S&P 493 show little or no gain, and productivity growth has not clearly accelerated. Whether the lag is temporary or structural remains unresolved, and the finding rests on a single note.

### Does this mean AI investing is a bad bet?

The note does not say that. Slok's point is about returns outside the largest companies, and he says the market's gains are real for them. Investors who want to check their exposure can look at how much of an index fund sits in the seven largest tech names. This is general context, not investment advice.

## Sources

1. [Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns AI Gains Are Concentrated in Mag 7 as S&P 493 Sees 'No Signs' of Productivity Boost](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/10/62583600/apollos-torsten-slok-warns-ai-gains-are-concentrated-in-mag-7-as-sp-493-sees-no-signs-of-productivity-boost-zero-financial-payoff)
2. [Apollo's Slok Says AI Has Delivered Zero Payoff Outside of Tech (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance)](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apollo-slok-says-ai-delivered-092836159.html)
3. [AI's boost to the U.S. economy is nearing its peak, Goldman says, as Apollo finds 'zero financial payoff' outside Big Tech (Fortune)](https://fortune.com/2026/10/26/ai-zero-financial-payoff-outside-big-tech-apollo-slok-goldman-peak/)
4. [Apollo's Torsten Slok Warns AI Has Delivered 'Zero Financial Payoff' Outside Tech (Yahoo Finance)](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apollo-torsten-slok-warns-ai-125709125.html)
5. [Stock market news for Oct. 26, 2026 (CNBC)](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
6. [Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for October 26 (Bloomberg)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/us-equity-futures-climb-as-crude-oil-price-dips-markets-wrap)
7. [Stock Market Today (Oct. 26, 2026): Nasdaq, S&P 500 jump after Anthropic IPO announcement (TheStreet)](https://thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-oct-26-2026)